A new study by Google and Deloitte forecasts a major transformation in the global travel industry, with international travel expected to increase by 60% by 2040, reaching an astounding 2.4 billion travellers worldwide. As new economic and technological factors influence the market, countries like India, China, and the U.S. are predicted to lead outbound travel growth, reshaping the global tourism landscape.
Key Insights from Google’s “Travel 2040” Report
The report, based on extensive analysis of Google Search trends and over 90,000 global data points, predicts a dramatic shift in travel trends, highlighting the rise of digital-savvy travellers from emerging markets and the growing influence of the U.S. as a key source market.
1. Rising Source Markets: India Leads with Growth Potential India is set to become one of the fastest-growing outbound travel markets, projected to increase by five times its current rate by 2040. The surge in Indian travellers is attributed to increased passport ownership, digital engagement, and simplified visa processes. Indian travellers also have a shorter lead time, often booking flights within 50 days on average, in contrast to the global average of 70 days. Travel brands are encouraged to adopt a localized approach to engage Indian consumers, given the linguistic and cultural diversity in the country, which features over ten languages with more than 30 million speakers each.
In addition to India, the U.S. remains a significant travel market, driving 10% of European tourism demand. American travellers, known for their brand loyalty, contribute over 40% of non-European tourism within Europe, with 78% of U.S. travellers willing to pay extra for familiar brands.
2. Destination Diversification: New Hotspots and Regional Growth The report projects Spain will become the most visited country in the world, overtaking France, while Mexico will join the top five most popular destinations globally. Europe, Asia, and North America remain significant attractions, but a notable surge in tourism is expected in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are projected to see the highest growth in arrivals, driven by ambitious projects like Saudi Arabia’s Neom city and the Expo 2030, alongside UAE’s luxury tourism offerings.
With this increase in traveller demand, destinations like Indonesia are also seeing a shift. New regions within popular destinations are gaining more attention, with search interest for emerging Indonesian regions surpassing traditional spots like Bali. This trend of “destination diversification” highlights the importance of offering personalized, authentic experiences that cater to local and global tastes.
3. The Traveller of the Future: Informed, Diverse, and Ageing Travel in 2040 will involve a more informed and selective traveller, divided into two distinct groups: emerging and mature markets. Emerging markets, like India, lean toward established destinations near home, while mature markets increasingly seek unique, off-the-beaten-path experiences. Ageing populations, especially from countries like Japan and China, are expected to fuel a demand for cultural and historical experiences, creating opportunities for brands that cater to more specific needs of mature travellers.
Travellers will also continue to make well-informed, research-driven decisions, demanding a level of trust and confidence from travel brands. This preference reflects an evolving travel experience where assurance, personalised offers, and in-depth knowledge play vital roles. Companies that can anticipate these needs and adjust their offerings to suit a highly informed traveller will be well-positioned for success.
Conclusion: Preparing for the Future of Travel For travel brands, this report underscores the importance of brand awareness, localization, and adaptation to new traveller profiles. With the global travel landscape set to evolve rapidly, those in the industry who build brand recognition, invest in local and authentic experiences, and align with the trends of destination diversification will lead in the competitive landscape by 2040.
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